Enabling technologies, lifecycle transitions, and industrial systems in technology foresight: Insights from advanced materials FTA

Charles R. Featherston, Eoin O'Sullivan
2017 Technological forecasting & social change  
A B S T R A C T This paper investigates opportunities to enhance Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) of emerging technologies within innovation systems. We address key challenges faced by policy makers developing innovation strategies for emerging technologies. In particular, we explore ways FTA might be structured to investigate the complex innovation system journeys of novel technologies as they are developed, diffuse, and get deployed. In doing this, we draw on concepts from technology
more » ... and operations management and related literatures to more carefully characterise: (1) 'infrastructural technologies' required to develop emerging technologies; (2) key technology transitions involved in diffusion; and (3) complex industrial value networks into which they may eventually get deployed. We investigate the extent to which these categories are already used within national technology foresight exercises. In particular, we review over 240 international FTA-related policy, strategy, and analysis documents for 'advanced materials'. We conclude that -although generally used inconsistently and unsystematically within FTA -these categories repeatedly emerge as important elements in many final foresight reports and strategies. We conclude by arguing that these categories should be carefully considered in initial FTA design. And that, by doing so, FTA exercises may better reveal potential 'innovation system failures' and help policy makers coordinate policy actions in response.
doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2016.06.025 fatcat:n5mmxbpbtbcyxh37bcqszasgbu