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A B S T R A C T The development of projections for changes in the genesis of tropical cyclones (TCs) for a changed climate is explored in this article using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project: Phase 3 (CMIP3) models. In this study, we explore how the projected change in the genesis frequency of TCs strongly depends upon the selection of models used in the ensemble. Results from 16 CMIP3 models are analysed and validated against the National Center for Environmentaldoi:10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.18696 fatcat:36fsncmkbbc67e6wy546fx4boe