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This paper derives a dynamic path of ongoing terror attacks as a function of terrorists' capacity and a target government's counterterror capacity. The analysis provides several novel insights and characterizations. First, the effect of counterterror policy is limited. Second, proactive counterterror policy affects the depreciation (fatigue) of terrorists' capacity, and defensive counterterror policy limits the worst-case scenario. Third, fluctuations in the time path of attacks are a functiondoi:10.3390/g12020035 fatcat:tmnkpzqningoxfx35ngqmbbpsa