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Probabilistic forecast of microcystin toxin using satellite remote sensing, in situ observations and numerical modeling
2020
Environmental Modelling & Software
Lake Erie has experienced a resurgence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) since the early 2000's dominated by Microcystis aeruginosa, which produce toxins known as microcystins. We develop an approach to predict the spatially-and temporally-resolved probability of exceeding a public health advisory (PHA) level (6 μg/L) of microcystins in the western basin of Lake Erie that would be suitable for use in a forecast system, consisting of 1) an existing HAB chlorophyll forecast system,
doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104705
fatcat:zlwrbikmjng5ddebskeh6vxntu