UNIT ROOTS IN WHITE NOISE

Alexei Onatski, Harald Uhlig
2011 Econometric Theory  
We show that the empirical distribution of the roots of the vector auto-regression of order n fitted to T observations of a general stationary or non-stationary process, converges to the uniform distribution over the unit circle on the complex plane, when both T and n tend to infinity so that (ln T ) /n → 0 and n 3 /T → 0. In particular, even if the process is a white noise, the roots of the estimated vector auto-regression will converge by absolute value to unity.
doi:10.1017/s0266466611000636 fatcat:y62oyi3bzfa27c5gvizm232jxm