Risk Management of Construction Works by Means of the Utility Theory: A Case Study

Oleg Kaplinski
2013 Procedia Engineering  
The construction works are implemented under conditions of risk. In this paper, a suggested method of risk analysis has been presented, based on the application of utility theory. This procedure embraces the following: data about conditions of construction, data about the economic situation, including a relationship between supply and demand, seasonality. Besides this approach includes variants of decisions, historical data, conditional probability, utility function. The method of defining the
more » ... tility function can be briefly described as follows: the decision maker (for example, a contract engineer, building site manager) is faced with a choice between a certitude of a given result (a monetary value), and a lottery was to extreme results. The two contrasting (but practical) cases of function of utility, that is characteristic of a decision maker with an aversion to risk, and decision maker with a predilection to risk, are then analysed in detail. The economic effects of their decisions are then presented.
doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2013.04.068 fatcat:cis52iqro5hg3hywlvu75f3qri