On possibility of short‐term prognosis of cyclonic activity after‐effects in Vilnius by variation of hard cosmic ray flux

Dmitrijus Styra, Algirdas Čiučelis, Ana Usovaite, Jovita Damauskaite
2008 Journal of Environmental Engineering and Landscape Management  
Analysis of hard cosmic ray flux (HCRF) variation at an energy interval 1.2-1.6 MeV was carried out in Vilnius. Connection between HCRF decrease at the mentioned energy interval and the minimum atmospheric pressure in 3-6 days is defined. This phenomenon is registered from 8 up to 13 hours. According to the time interval of HCRF decrease, for instance 8-9 and 9-10 hours, the minimum pressure in Vilnius takes place in 3-4 days, and at time intervals 11-12, and 12-13 hours -in 5-6 days.
more » ... 5-6 days. Realization of this prognosis at one of the presented time intervals was 56-67% in 2002-2003. The same investigation results, with the assumption of atmospheric pressure decrease from 1005 hPa and less, showed a high efficiency of prognosis of the minimum pressure in Vilnius at all the time intervals during 6 days - 92%, and 82% in 2002 and 2003, correspondingly.
doi:10.3846/1648-6897.2008.16.159-167 fatcat:2ssopyfmezgcvkwturnu7h34ee