KSI Transactions on K N O W L E D Predicting crises-Economic dynamism of China and "Bright Prospects" Прогнозиране на кризи-икономическата динамика на Китай и "светлите перспективи"

Georgi Najdenov, Kalojan Haralampiev
Annotation:This report presents results from a study of cyclical economic developments in China. The main tasks of the study are threefold: a) to identify the types of waves and on the first place -are there long waves of Kondratiev; b) to make a comparative analysis for synchronicity of the long waves between them, and then -synchronicity with the dynamic of the world conjuncture; c) to explore in which phase of the present long wave is the Chinese economy and to estimate the short term
more » ... e short term perspectives for economic and social-political development of China. The research discovers three long rows natural indicators: coal mining, cast iron production and steel production. The presence of the classical type long wave with high synchronicity of the wave on the three indicators was established. It was found that in the coming years impends the change of the nature and rate of the economic development. The change of the nature of the economic development is a serious risk not only for China, but also for the whole world.