Estimating the probability that the game of Monopoly never ends

Eric J. Friedman, Shane G. Henderson, Thomas Byuen, German Gutierrez Gallardo
2009 Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC)  
We estimate the probability that the game of Monopoly between two players playing very simple strategies never ends. Four different estimators, based respectively on straightforward simulation, a Brownian motion approximation, asymptotics for Markov chains, and importance sampling all yield an estimate of approximately twelve percent. 978-1-4244-5771-7/09/$26.00
doi:10.1109/wsc.2009.5429349 dblp:conf/wsc/FriedmanHBG09 fatcat:by34dzaxzfctldjxly7owxfrvy