Dynamic migration flow modeling
Security Dialogues. Journal in the field of Security, Defence and Peace Studies
The number of international migrants reached 244 million in 2015, including almost 20 million refugees. This number was further increased with the onset of the "Migrant Crisis" with a huge number of people abandoning conflict-torn countries of Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc. Taking into account that serious problems related to human migrations have existed throughout history, in the previous decades various models have been developed for the analysis of this field. The most common models
... ost common models have been the Lee Model and the Gravity Model. The Lee model applies so-called pushpull factors for the analysis of decisions for migrating, whereas the Gravity model of migration is derived from the Newton's Law of Gravity, and is used to predict the degree of interaction between two spatial models. The Gravity model of migration is based upon the idea that the increase in interregional differences in socio-economic values between locations of migration origin and destination may induce increased flow between them, whilst the increase in distance between two locations may cause the tendency of migration to decrease. Both models, among many others, are used mainly Security dialogues 150 for explanation of migration decision making and the migration management policies. The existing migration models based on System Dynamics (SD) are generally related to data analysis, policy making and migration management. The paper presents an SD model that analyses migrant/refugee flow, taking into account the following parameters: political decisions of the countries on migrant routes (political intervention), socio-economic factors, porosity of state borders, criminal activities, public opinion, health, climate and environmental conditions etc. The model was built and simulations performed using the Vensim modeling tool, the results of which may be used for prediction purposes, creation migration management scenarios, as well as for the risk and resilience assessment of the migrant routes.