Hydrology-oriented forest management trade-offs. A modeling framework coupling field data, simulation results and Bayesian Networks

Alberto Garcia-Prats, María González-Sanchis, Antonio D. Del Campo, Cristina Lull
2018 Science of the Total Environment  
9 Hydrology-oriented forest management sets water as key factor of the forest management for 10 adaptation due to water is the most limiting factor in the Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The 11 aim of this study was to apply Bayesian Network modeling to assess potential indirect effects 12 and trade-offs when hydrology-oriented forest management is applied to a real Mediterranean 13 forest ecosystem. Water, carbon and nitrogen cycles, and forest fire risk were included in the 14 modeling
more » ... ork. Field data from experimental plots were employed to calibrate and 15 validate the mechanistic Biome-BGCMuSo model that simulates the storage and flux of water, 16 carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Many other 50-year long 17 scenarios with different conditions to the ones measured in the field experiment were simulated 18 and the outcomes employed to build the Bayesian Network in a linked chain of models. 19 Hydrology-oriented forest management was very positive insofar as more water was made 20 available to the stand because of an interception reduction. This resource was made available to 21 the stand, which increased the evapotranspiration and its components, the soil water content and 22 a slightly increase of deep percolation. Conversely, Stemflow was drastically reduced. No effect 23 was observed on Runof due to the thinning treatment. The soil organic carbon content was also 24 increased which in turn caused a greater respiration. The long-term effect of the thinning 25 treatment on the LAI was very positive. This was undoubtedly due to the increased vigor 26 2 generated by the greater availability of water and nutrients for the stand and the reduction of 27 competence between trees. This greater activity resulted in an increase in GPP and vegetation 28 carbon, and therefore, we would expect a higher carbon sequestration. Itis worth emphasizing 29 that this extra amount of water and nutrients was taken up by the stand and did not entail any 30 loss of nutrients. 31
doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.05.134 pmid:29803044 fatcat:4ts2xhpxhvhfzgidowzwklitkq