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Aggregation of Information and Beliefs: Asset Pricing Lessons from Prediction Markets
2009
Social Science Research Network
In a binary prediction market in which risk-neutral traders have heterogeneous prior beliefs and are allowed to invest a limited amount of money, the static rational expectations equilibrium price is demonstrated to underreact to information. This effect is consistent with a favorite-longshot bias, and is more pronounced when prior beliefs are more heterogeneous. Relaxing the assumptions of risk neutrality and bounded budget, underreaction to information also holds in a more general asset
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1447369
fatcat:mvw7qd4aa5e43nwcyio7oza4bq