Modelling dependence and coincidence of storm surges and high tide: Methodology and simplified case study in Le Havre (France) [post]

Amine Ben Daoued, Yasser Hamdi, Nassima Mouhous-Voyneau, Philippe Sergent
2020 unpublished
<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Coastal facilities such as nuclear power plants (NPPs) have to be designed to withstand extreme weather conditions and must, in particular, be protected against coastal floods because it is the most important source of coastal lowlands inundations. Indeed, considering the combination of tide and extreme storm surges (SSs) is a key issue in the evaluation of the risk associated to coastal flooding hazard. Tide and extreme SSs are considered as
more » ... considered as independent. While there are several approaches to analyze and characterize coastal flooding hazard with either extreme SSs or sea levels, only few studies propose and compare several approaches combining the tide density with the SS variable. Thus this study aims to develop a method for modelling dependence and coincidence of SSs and high tide. In this work, we have used existing methods for tide and SS combination and tried to improve the results by proposing a new alternative approach while showing the limitations and advantages of each method. The city of Le Havre in France was used as a case study. Overall, the example has shown that the return levels estimates using different combinations are quite different. It has also been suggested that the questions of coincidence and dependency are essential for a combined tide and SS hazard analysis.</p>
doi:10.5194/nhess-2019-407 fatcat:r4ushlur2reknbmtzsrb4j5uea