Methodology of Diagnosing Financial Crises by Using a System of Signaling Economic Indicators and Digital Analytical Tools

Nadezhda Yashina, Nataliya Pronchatova-Rubtsova, Victor Kuznetsov, Oksana Kashina, Sergey Yashin
2020 Proceedings of the International Conference Digital Age: Traditions, Modernity and Innovations (ICDATMI 2020)   unpublished
The global financial crisis, caused by the pandemic, has taken on a scale unparalleled in previous crisis periods. Our assessment of the impact of this crisis on the economy is associated with high uncertainty of economic consequences. The most vulnerable to this crisis were countries with a high level of debt obligations and limited opportunities for the financial and credit system. At the same time, the stable financial and credit system of the state guarantees: the development of the
more » ... l of the country in improving the quality of life, the reliability of economic and social institutions, and effective redistribution of capital. Digitalization of the economy has provided new opportunities for the diagnosis of a financial crisis state and to monitor its precursors. This article is devoted to the research and development of effective methods for diagnosing and predicting financial crises in Russia with the help of a special system of economic indicators and digital analytical tools. The state of the country's economy for 1997-2019 was studied in detail. In addition, the source information base was data from the Federal Service of State Statistics of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The authors identified the most important groups of factors causing high financial and economic risks with the use of signal approach, nonparametric methods, mathematical statistics, and econometric modeling. As a result, a system of signs-indicators of crisis phenomena typical for the Russian economy has been developed. Also, a multifactor model is proposed which allows to track the influence of factors that determine the onset of crisis phenomena. Finally, the implementation of developed methods allows us to obtain information on trends in the sphere of financial and economic instability and ultimately assess the likelihood of a financial crisis.
doi:10.2991/assehr.k.201212.035 fatcat:jn33h2uyajcblftovdjjpavnma