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Aggregating predictions from experts: a scoping review of statistical methods, experiments, and applications
[article]
2020
arXiv
pre-print
Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse, rapidly changing, or unavailable, statistical models may not be able to make accurate predictions. Expert judgmental forecasts---models that combine expert-generated predictions into a single forecast---can make predictions when training data is limited by relying on expert intuition to take the place of concrete training data.
arXiv:1912.11409v2
fatcat:ihzcen2cfrhg3ee7qtzxzey7nu