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Probabilistic Forecasting of Regional Net-load with Conditional Extremes and Gridded NWP
[article]
2021
arXiv
pre-print
The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with particular attention given to the tails of predictive distributions, which are required for managing risk associated with low-probability events. Only small volumes of data are available in the tails, by definition, so estimation of predictive models and
arXiv:2103.10335v2
fatcat:xtaghjpgh5d6bf3fht5qxwra3e