Nature's Possibilities and Expectations [chapter]

Glenn Shafer
2001 Probability Theory  
A flexible and commonsensical theory of causality can be based on the idea of Nature's evolving predictions. Nature witnesses the unfolding of events at levels of detail finer than that of any actual witness, and she makes predictions of future events that are never falsified. Although we seldom see events as Nature sees them, we often conjecture about Nature's predictions from regularities we do see, and we sometimes build these conjectures into our own reasoning and prediction.
more » ... these conjectures concern possibilities and expectations in Nature's event tree.
doi:10.1007/978-94-015-9648-0_8 fatcat:2tjsuxyhejdizmyug3cepswste