In homogeneous drift-wave turbulence, zonal flows (ZFs) can be generated via a modulational instability (MI) that either saturates monotonically or leads to oscillations of the ZF energy at the nonlinear stage. This dynamics is often attributed as the predator-prey oscillations induced by ZF collisional damping; however, similar dynamics is also observed in collisionless ZFs, in which case a different mechanism must be involved. Here, we propose a semi-analytic theory that explains the

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... n between the oscillations and saturation of collisionless ZFs within the quasilinear Hasegawa-Mima model. By analyzing phase-space trajectories of DW quanta (driftons) within the geometrical-optics (GO) approximation, we argue that the parameter that controls this transition is N∼γ MI /ω DW , where γ MI is the MI growth rate and ω DW is the linear DW frequency. We argue that at N=1, ZFs oscillate due to the presence of so-called passing drifton trajectories, and we derive an approximate formula for the ZF amplitude as a function of time in this regime. We also show that at N 1, the passing trajectories vanish and ZFs saturate monotonically, which can be attributed to phase mixing of higher-order sidebands. A modification of N that accounts for effects beyond the GO limit is also proposed. These analytic results are tested against both quasilinear and fully-nonlinear simulations. They also explain the earlier numerical results by Connaughton et al (2010 J. Fluid Mech. 654 207) and Gallagher et al (2012 Phys. Plasmas 19 122115) and offer a different perspective on what the control parameter actually is that determines the transition from the oscillations to saturation of collisionless ZFs.