The performance of intersections has been considered a key factor in measuring the efficiency of urban road systems. In this paper, a reliability model for a two-phase signalized intersection is proposed on the basis of presenting a concept of traffic function reliability (TFR). First, classic cumulative curves are created to derive delay formulas. Then, a model for traffic function reliability is proposed based on the quantitative relationship between the random traffic flows, signal timing,

more »

... d queue lengths. Finally, the delay threshold of the intersection is determined by referring to the level of service. A numerical simulation has been created to clarify the proposed mechanism of TFR. The results show that the saturation and the green time ratio have a dramatical influence on TFR. Under different saturation levels, the sensitivity of TFR to changes in green time ratio gradually weakened. When the green signal ratio increases above a certain value, TFR remains nearly constant. A microscopic simulation verified the applicability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the model is close to 90% in the case of low saturation. This method provides road authorities useful insights to understand travel time variability.