Simulation model: Support to investment decision-making in the coal industry

Zoran Gligoric, Cedomir Beljic, Vojin Cokorilo, Zlatko Dragosavljevic
2010 Thermal Science  
The pa per deals with the prob lem of us ing coal as an en ergy re source bear ing in mind the re quire ments of the mod ern so ci ety. Nec es sary changes in the coal in dustry de mand a cer tain level of in vest ments. Mak ing rel e vant in vest ment de ci sions is of cru cial im por tance for the fu ture ef fi ciency of the sys tem mine-power plant. The pro posed model in cor po rates the pro ce dure of de ci sion-mak ing sim u la tion un der the con di tions of un cer tain pa ram e ters.
more » ... pres ent value is used as the main cri terion in de ci sion-mak ing. Dif fer ent func tions of prob a bil ity dis tri bu tion (nor mal, uni form and tri an gu lar dis tri bu tion) are ap plied for the es ti ma tion of un cer tain ties re lated to cer tain pa ram e ters. For oth ers, the es ti ma tion of fu ture con di tions is based on the Monte Carlo method and the sim u la tion of geo met ric Brownian motion.
doi:10.2298/tsci091030008g fatcat:65sry6fylfhptdoih2hgd2lnaa