Plausibility and probability in deductive reasoning [article]

Andrew MacFie
2019 arXiv   pre-print
We consider the problem of rational uncertainty about unproven mathematical statements, remarked on by G\"odel and others. Using Bayesian-inspired arguments we build a normative model of fair bets under deductive uncertainty which draws from both probability and the theory of algorithms. We comment on connections to Zeilberger's notion of "semi-rigorous proofs", particularly that inherent subjectivity would be present. We also discuss a financial view with models of arbitrage where traders have limited computational resources.
arXiv:1708.09032v6 fatcat:u4xliqk6zzavvf3jpkf47xkj3y