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This paper proposes a proportional odds model to combine systemic and non-systemic risk for prediction of default and prepay performance in cohorts of booked loan accounts. We assume that performance odds is proportional to two independent factors, one based on age-dependent systemic, possibly external, global disruptions to a cohort of individual accounts, the other on traditional non-systemic information odds based on demographic, behavioural and financial payment patterns of the individualdoi:10.1057/jors.2013.134 fatcat:cyclcz4oznc6xamk426w322jwa