Scenario-Based Verification of Uncertain Parametric MDPs [article]

Thom Badings, Murat Cubuktepe, Nils Jansen, Sebastian Junges, Joost-Pieter Katoen, Ufuk Topcu
2022 arXiv   pre-print
We consider parametric Markov decision processes (pMDPs) that are augmented with unknown probability distributions over parameter values. The problem is to compute the probability to satisfy a temporal logic specification with any concrete MDP that corresponds to a sample from these distributions. As solving this problem precisely is infeasible, we resort to sampling techniques that exploit the so-called scenario approach. Based on a finite number of samples of the parameters, the proposed
more » ... d yields high-confidence bounds on the probability of satisfying the specification. The number of samples required to obtain a high confidence on these bounds is independent of the number of states and the number of random parameters. Experiments on a large set of benchmarks show that several thousand samples suffice to obtain tight and high-confidence lower and upper bounds on the satisfaction probability.
arXiv:2112.13020v2 fatcat:i2qrubfibnahznfccy5spexf4y