A Time-varying Mixture Memory Multiplicative Error Model

Giovanni De Luca, Giampiero M. Gallo
2019 International Journal of Business and Social Science  
The dynamics of financial volatility shows a behavior characterized by alternating periods of turbulence and relative quiet. We suggest modelling it as a mixture memory model where time-varying mixing weights are a function of some forcing variable capable of sudden changes. In choosing a mixture approach we rely on previous evidence on the presence of a short-and a long-memory component in the observed series. We apply our model to the main Spanish stock index (IBEX) using the spread between
more » ... e sovereign national and German bond rates as the forcing variable. The results show a good performance in sample, pointing to the fact that fixed weights may be a limitation to an accurate description of volatility behavior.
doi:10.30845/ijbss.v10n2p4 fatcat:e2b4phgq45esbpqefahwhyjnmm