Disagreement About Inflation and the Yield Curve

Paul Ehling, Michael F. Gallmeyer, Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, Philipp K. Illeditsch
2015 Social Science Research Network  
We study how differences in beliefs about expected inflation impact real and nominal yield curves in a frictionless economy. Inflation disagreement induces a spillover effect to the real side of the economy with a strong impact on the real yield curve. When investors have a coefficient of relative risk aversion greater than one, real average yields across all maturities rise as disagreement increases. Real yield volatilities also rise with disagreement. Using the feature that nominal bond
more » ... can be computed from weighted-averages of quadratic Gaussian yield curves, increased inflation disagreement drives nominal yields and nominal yield volatilities higher at all maturities. Empirical support for these predictions is provided.
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2693147 fatcat:qtxmvgm7qfagtnti3j2orpjbna