With the development of the urbanization process, the demand for water resources has increased significantly, but the pollution of water resources has caused serious problems. These changes pose a potential threat to water resource carrying capacity in many regions. However, how to determine the areas of highest risk in water resource carrying capacity is an urgent problem which remains to be solved. Resounding to these circumstances, this study establishes a TODIM-PROMETHEE Ⅱ (An acronym in

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... tuguese for interactive and multiple attribute decision making- preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation Ⅱ) based decision support framework to address this issue for the regions of intensive governance, thereby providing support. In this framework, a novel theoretical concept, namely probabilistic linguistic Z-numbers, is proposed to describe group decision information. The related knowledge of probabilistic linguistic Z-numbers is developed, including a comparison method, distance, and operational rules. Subsequently, a case study involving the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity is conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the decision support model, followed by sensitivity analysis, comparison analysis, and discussion. The findings demonstrate that the constructed framework demonstrates great performance to address this issue.