Testing the Neoclassical Migration Model: Overall and Age-Group Specific Results for German Regions

Timo Mitze, Janina Reikowski
2010 Social Science Research Network  
This paper tests the empirical validity of the neoclassical migration model in predicting German internal migration fl ows. We estimate static and dynamic migration functions for 97 Spatial Planning Regions between 1996 and 2006 using key labor market signals including income and unemployment diff erences among a broader set of explanatory variables. Besides an aggregate specifi cation we also estimate the model for agegroup related subsamples. Our results give empirical support for the main
more » ... nsmission channels identifi ed by the neoclassical framework -both at the aggregate level as well as for age-group specifi c estimates. Thereby, the impact of labor market signals is tested to be of greatest magnitude for workforce relevant age-groups and especially young cohorts between 18 to 25 and 25 to 30 years. This latter result underlines the prominent role played by labor market conditions in determining internal migration rates of the working population in Germany. JEL Classifi cation: R23, C31, C33
doi:10.2139/ssrn.1722642 fatcat:dddizocmzrfbpdmzzh3c7dwvjy