Desertification in Forest, Range and Desert Landuses of Tehran Province, Under the Impact of Climate Change
Solid Earth Discussions
Persistence of widespread degradation in arid and semi-arid region of Iran necessitates using of monitoring and evaluation systems with appropriate accuracy to determine the degradation process and adoption of early warning systems; because after transition from some thresholds, effective reversible function of ecosystems will not be very easy. This paper tries to monitor the degradation and desertification trends in three land uses including range, forest and desert lands affected by climate
... ange in Tehran province for 2000s and 2030s. For assessing climate changes of Mehrabad synoptic stations the data of two emission scenarios including A2 and B2 were used using statistical downscaling techniques and data generated by SDSM model. The index of net primary production resulting from MODIS satellite images was employed as an indicator of destruction from 2001 to 2010. The results showed that temperature is the most effective driver force which alters the net primary production in rangeland, forest and desert ecosystems of Tehran province. On the basis of monitoring findings under real conditions, in the 2000s, over 60 % of rangelands and 80 % of the forests have been below the average production in the province. On the other hand, the long-term average changes of NPP in rangeland and forests indicated the presence of relatively large areas of these land uses with production rate lower than the desert. The results also showed that, assuming the existence of circumstances of each emission scenarios, the desertification status will not improve significantly in the rangelands and forests of Tehran province.