Why is Inflation Skewed? A Debt and Volatility Story [report]

Joshua Aizenman, Ricardo Hausmann
1994 unpublished
WHY IS INFLATION SKEWED? A DEBT AND VOLATILITY STORY A B STR ACT This paper studies the patterns of inflation skewness in 56 countries. Monthly data suggests that inflation is posicively skewed. We investigate linkages between skewness and nonlinearity, showing that concavity (convexity) will lead to negative (positive) skewness if the independent variable is symmetrically distributed. We construct a public finance model for a developing country that uses inflation tax and external borrowing as
more » ... the residual means for fiscal financing. The model predicts a convex dependency of inflation on output. whem inflation skewness depends positively on inflation volatility, and external debt difficulties magnify the skewness. We conclude the paper with an assessment of the patterns of inflation between 1979-1993 for the 56 countries. Overall, the patterns are consistent with the predictions of the model.
doi:10.3386/w4837 fatcat:rknouutoxrgqnjoppf2dbstbhm