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Why the damped trend works
2011
Journal of the Operational Research Society
The damped trend method of exponential smoothing is a benchmark that has been difficult to beat in empirical studies of forecast accuracy. One explanation for this success is the flexibility of the method, which contains a variety of special cases that are automatically selected during the fitting process. That is, when the method is fitted, the optimal parameters usually define a special case rather than the method itself. For example, in the M3-competition time series, the parameters defined
doi:10.1057/jors.2010.37
fatcat:4pkd445avzbjdm3oty6kkcv2y4