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A probabilistic model for software development projects is constructed. The model can be applied to compute an estimate for the development time of a project. The chances of succeeding with a given amount of time and the risk of deviating from the estimate can be computed as well. Examples show that the model behaves as expected when the input data are changed. supported by a doctoral fellowship of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft DFG at the Graduiertenkolleg Informatik, Saarbrückendoi:10.1145/318774.318932 fatcat:jclr2l6gvvfnlghoqld7nk5cxu