Local Adaptive Multiplicative Error Models for High- Frequency Forecasts

Wolfgang K. Hardle, Nikolaus Hautsch, Andrija Mihoci
2012 Social Science Research Network  
We propose a local adaptive multiplicative error model (MEM) accommodating timevarying parameters. MEM parameters are adaptively estimated based on a sequential testing procedure. A data-driven optimal length of local windows is selected, yielding adaptive forecasts at each point in time. Analyzing one-minute cumulative trading volumes of five large NASDAQ stocks in 2008, we show that local windows of approximately 3 to 4 hours are reasonable to capture parameter variations while balancing
more » ... ling bias and estimation (in)efficiency. In forecasting, the proposed adaptive approach significantly outperforms a MEM where local estimation windows are fixed on an ad hoc basis. JEL classification: C41, C51, C53, G12, G17
doi:10.2139/ssrn.2315830 fatcat:auqbpvbkdvgkbeil5e3eofg2au