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Associating the dynamic spatial modeling based on the theory of cellular automata with remote sensing and geoprocessing technologies, this article analyzes what would be the per capita consumption behavior of Fortaleza-CE, located in the Northeast of Brazil, in 2017, had there not been a period of water scarcity between 2013 and 2017, and estimates the future urban water demand for the years 2021 and 2025. The weight of evidence method was applied to produce a transition probability map, thatdoi:10.3390/w12072038 fatcat:efonukhef5fptowacxtfwke7xq