African urbanization trends and prospects

Philippe Bocquier, Andrew Kabulu Mukandila
2011 African Population Studies  
The paper aims at analysing and projecting urbanization trends using United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects data, 2007 Revision. A third order polynomial is used to model urban-rural growth difference from 1950 to 2005 country by country. The results of the model are compared to UN projection on urban growth for the period 2010-2050. Using the new model, the African urban population is projected to stagnate around its current level below 40%, with little variations by regions up to 2050,
more » ... egions up to 2050, while the UN predicts 62%. The findings suggest that UN projections are excessively high and do not match the level of economic and social development in Africa.
doi:10.11564/25-2-235 fatcat:b3njedzrfbbuhfewx3r3ekvw5m