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are to be commended for attempting to use the coalescent analysis of viral sequence data to evaluate a hepatitis B vaccination program. Coalescent theory attempts to link the phylogenetic history of populations with rates of population growth and decline. In particular, under certain assumptions, a reduction in genetic diversity can be interpreted as a reduction in disease incidence. However, the authors of this commentary contend that van Ballegooijen et al.'s interpretation of changes indoi:10.1093/aje/kwp366 pmid:19910381 pmcid:PMC2800275 fatcat:ajclubx4mzcnpcez3k6p5qoo3m