A copy of this work was available on the public web and has been preserved in the Wayback Machine. The capture dates from 2020; you can also visit the original URL.
The file type is application/pdf
.
OPTIMIZING FORECAST MODEL COMPLEXITY USING MULTI-OBJECTIVE EVOLUTIONARY ALGORITHMS
[chapter]
2004
Applications of Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms
When inducing a time series forecasting model there has always been the problem of defining a model that is complex enough to describe the process, yet not so complex as to promote data 'overfitting' -the socalled bias/variance trade-off. In the sphere of neural network forecast models this is commonly confronted by weight decay regularization, or by combining a complexity penalty term in the optimizing function. The correct degree of regularization, or penalty value, to implement for any
doi:10.1142/9789812567796_0028
fatcat:fvpcnjsidzhm7jjiwlmvz5a2di