Gaming the "System of Systems"

Robert P. Haffa, James H. Patton
1998 Parameters  
As military science develops, innovation tends to be more difficult than less . . . . In these circumstances, when everybody starts wrong, the advantage goes to the side which can most quickly adjust itself to the new and unfamiliar environment and learn from its mistakes." --Sir Michael Howard, RUSI, 1974 The second effort--far more interesting, much less publicized, and far richer historically--is the conduct of simulated conflicts, or wargames, in the laboratories of the nation's think tanks
more » ... and war colleges. Here the country's strategists, rather than its accountants, wrestle with constrained budgets, demanding scenarios, plausible adversaries, and multiple contingencies in an attempt to "look back from the future."[2] The purpose of these politico-military games is to provide insights and gain a common understanding of the hypothetical contingencies, level of conflict, technical leverage, operational concepts, doctrinal relevance, and organizational structures that have merit across the planning spectrum over the longer term. That is a big task, but the iterative nature of numerous exercises conducted over many years, while incorporating the views of a multitude of players, can produce meaningful insights. Key to the long-range planning approach embedded in wargaming is appreciation of our current situation and its historical antecedents, if any. Andy Marshall, the Director of Net Assessment in the Pentagon and a notable consumer of wargaming, has argued that the circumstances facing the United States today, in terms of strategic uncertainty, are quite similar to those we confronted in the early 1920s.[3] The beginning of that interwar period saw the emergence of new technologies with startling potential military applications. In that period of politico-military uncertainty, the collapse of our principal adversary, and no declared opponents, it was far from clear how we might apply those capabilities to deter or defend against a future threat. During that 20-year period, wargames not only calculated the results of colliding military forces, but also offered an opportunity to prepare and to innovate before the war clouds gathered on the horizon. If similar fortunes are now at hand, can they be integrated and managed in the context of a "system of systems"?
doi:10.55540/0031-1723.1866 fatcat:kn3ze2x3jfae7bdx63rh47u3hi