The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960–1984

J. Scott Armstrong
1986 Interfaces  
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide
more » ... uidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960. Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds to the forecasting guidelines proposed before 1960, such as the value of combining forecasts. New findings have led to significant gains in our ability to forecast and to help people to use forecasts. What have we reamed about forecasting over the past quarter century? Does recent research provide guidance for making more accurate forecasts, obtaining better assessments of uncertainty, or gaining acceptance of our forecasts? I will first describe forecasting principles that were believed to be the most advanced in 1960. Following that, I will examine the evidence produced since 1960. Forecasting Principles in 1960 Forecasts serve many needs in organizations and are employed for both short-range and long-range planning. They help in making decisions on production, personnel, finance, and marketing. Figure 1 shows the types of forecasts that are needed in addressing these decisions. For example, forecasts of competitive actions can help to assess a proposed strategy.
doi:10.1287/inte.16.1.89 fatcat:hgkjrj7zvjfulmzm3ww6sdehoq