Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89

Tawanda Marufu
2016 European Journal of Preventive Medicine  
A study was carried out in Gweru urban district (population-158233) in Zimbabwe to determine the impact of measles vaccine applied at 9 months of age on measles transmission patterns. A retrospective observational study that used data from measles vaccination records and measles disease surveillance was conducted. Linear regression analysis and the chisquared test for linear trend (χ 2 ) were used to investigate linear relationships at a 5% significance level. Vaccine coverage rates were 0% in
more » ... re-vaccination era in 1960-70 and 2-92% in 1971-89 (median=65, Q 1 =34, Q 3 =88) when they significantly linearly increased (p<0.001). In 1960-85 measles incidence rates significantly linearly increased (p<0.001) while in 1986-89 at vaccine coverage rates of >90% incidence rates significantly linearly declined (p<0.001). Proportion of vaccinated cases among measles notifications significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +1.19, 95% CI [0.52, 1.86]). At vaccine coverage rates of >80% (1984-89), proportion of vaccine failures among cases aged 60-119 months was significantly higher than at vaccine coverage rates of <80% (1971-83) (p=0.011) while in age group 10-59 months proportions of vaccine failures were not different at vaccine coverage rates of <80% and >80%. In age group 60-119 months incidence rates significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +29.88, 95 CI [13.95, 45.82]). In prevaccination era, and at vaccine coverage rates of <80% and >80% some 75% of all reported measles cases occurred by age 36-47 months, 48-59 months and 72-83 months respectively. In conclusion, measles incidence rates declined at vaccine coverage rates of >90%, while measles vaccine failures significantly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased. Increasing measles vaccination coverage led to shift of age at infection from age group <59 months to age group 60-119 months and decline in rates of measles transmission.
doi:10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13 fatcat:mgzdduah5fhljbhj6mk6dagebu