Viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and the predictive value of repeat testing [article]

Stephen M Kissler, Joseph R. Fauver, Christina Mack, Caroline Tai, Kristin Y. Shiue, Chaney Kalinich, Sarah Jednak, Isabel Ott, Chantal Vogels, Jay Wohlgemuth, James Weisberger, John DiFiori (+5 others)
2020 medRxiv   pre-print
SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics that report viral RNA concentrations can be used to determine a patient's stage of infection, but this potential has not yet been realized due to a lack of prospective longitudinal data to calibrate such inferences. Here, we report the viral RNA trajectories for 68 individuals using quantitative PCR testing. On average, symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals reached similar peak viral RNA concentrations (22.2 Ct, 95% credible interval [19.1, 25.1] vs. 22.4 Ct [20.2,
more » ... ]) within similar amounts of time (2.9 days [0.7, 4.7] vs. 3.0 days [1.3, 4.3]), but acute shedding lasted longer for symptomatic individuals (10.5 days [6.5, 14.0] vs. 6.7 days [3.2, 9.2]). A second test within 2 days after an initial positive PCR result reliably indicated whether viral RNA concentration was increasing, decreasing, or in a low-level persistent phase. Quantitative viral RNA assessment, informed by viral trajectory, can improve algorithms for clinical and public health management.
doi:10.1101/2020.10.21.20217042 fatcat:l6a4ukqg45dgphi4v7tj2xrbxy