Entwicklung eines Modells zur ökonomisch-ökologischen Bewertung von Landnutzungsszenarien unter besonderer Berücksichtigung von Klimavariabilität, adaptiver Bewirtschaftung und Nachhaltigkeit [thesis]

Sabrina Plegnière
2015
There are many challenges for the agriculture of tomorrow: On the one hand more humans have to be fed with scarcer resources like water and soil, profitability should be increased and crops have to be used for energy production and industry. On the other hand environmental pollution should be reduced and adaption strategies for future climate have to be found. Therefore the main aim of this dissertation is the development of a model for economic-ecological assessment. Therewith it should be
more » ... th it should be possible to simulate the impacts of climate variability, local conditions, different cultivation, environmental influences and sustainable management on plant growth. To archieve this aim an ecological plant growth model (STICS) and an economic model (production function) should be coupled. The sensitivity analysis of the plant growth model STICS shows that the model is siutable to simulate the impact of different cultivation and climate conditions on plant growth or yield and to calculate the soil fertility, e.g. due to nitrate leaching, realisticly. This is based on the use of the statistical climate model WETTREG 2010 which provides daily climate data of all on a climate station measured and statistically prepared climate elements. Hence natural variability of climate is well reflected and it is possible to assess future plant growth or the impacts of extreme weather conditions. The results of the plant growth model are the basis for the production function of type Cobb-Douglas. The graphic correlation, the distribution of the production factors and the results of regressions show that a simple linear regression to approximate a function based on mean values leads to poor results especially with regard to extreme events. The climate factors precipitation or water and temperature as well as sustainability in terms of conservation of soil fertility can not be determined unambiguously. Simulations with continuously rising temperature but the same distribution of precipitation (bad or good conditions for plant growth) emphasise [...]
doi:10.25353/ubtr-xxxx-274b-a0ce fatcat:vqvgu7ailnhs7gmhxzabb7cuvi