Previous studies examining the relationship between the groundwater table and seismic velocities have been guided by empirical relationships only. Here, we develop a physics-based model relating fluctuations in groundwater table and pore pressure with seismic velocity variations through changes in effective stress. This model justifies the use of seismic velocity variations for monitoring of the pore pressure. Using a subset of the Groningen seismic network, near-surface velocity changes are

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... imated over a four-year period, using passive image interferometry. The same velocity changes are predicted by applying the newly derived theory to pressure-head recordings. It is demonstrated that the theory provides a close match of the observed seismic velocity changes.