Prediction of Postoperative Infection for Patients Undergoing Gastrointestinal Surgery: Findings from Electronic Health Records

Kyoko Nakazawa, Takashi Ishikawa, Akira Toyama, Toshifumi Wakai, Kohei Akazawa
2020 Gastroenterology Insights  
Postoperative infection is a major cause of morbidity and prolonged hospitalization in patients undergoing gastrointestinal surgery. This observational study aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with postoperative infection and to develop a prediction model for postoperative infections that occur after gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: The study population comprised 1637 patients who underwent gastrointestinal surgery at Niigata University Medical and Dental Hospital between June
more » ... ital between June 2013 and May 2017. Observational data from 1883 surgical procedures were used in the statistical analyses (including 198 patients who underwent several operations). Results: The generalized estimating equation (GEE) was used to detect significant risk factors, including older age, history of smoking, body temperature greater than 38 °C, non-endoscopic surgical procedures, surgery in the thoracic or lower gastrointestinal tract, and use of medical nutritional products during surgery. The sensitivity and specificity of the GEE model were 88.2% and 55.1%, respectively. Conclusion: This study established a predictable GEE model, incorporating the data of patients who were hospitalized several times into a prediction analysis, even though the sensitivity was not sufficiently high. The GEE model, which is considered clinically useful, can be constructed using a variety of variables, including those obtained from electronic health records.
doi:10.3390/gastroent11020007 fatcat:6q5oxfzstrhure2v5enix6zbau