A model of the topology of the bank – firm credit network and its role as channel of contagion

Thomas Lux
2016 Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control  
Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen
more » ... bedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: This paper proposes a stochastic model of a bipartite credit network between banks and the non-bank corporate sector that encapsulates basic stylized facts fond in comprehensive data sets for bank-firm loans for a number of countries. When performing computational experiment with this mode, we find that is shows a pronounced nonlinear behavior under shock: The default of a single unit will mostly have practically no know-on effects, but might lead to an almost full-scale collapse of the entire system in a certain number of cases. The dependency of the overall outcome on firm characteristics like size or number of loans seems fuzzy. Distinguishing between contagion due to interbank credit and due to joint exposures to counterparty risk via loans to firms, the later channel appears more important for contagious spread of defaults. JEL-Classification: D85, G21, D83 Abstract This paper proposes a stochastic model of a bipartite credit network between banks and the non-bank corporate sector that encapsulates basic stylized facts found in comprehensive data sets for bank-firm loans for a number of countries. When performing computational experiments with this model, we find that it shows a pronounced non-linear behavior under shocks: The default of a single unit will mostly have practically no knock-on effects, but might lead to an almost full-scale collapse of the entire system in a certain number of cases. The dependency of the overall outcome on firm characteristics like size or number of loans seems fuzzy. Distinguishing between contagion due to interbank credit and due to joint exposures to counterparty risk via loans to firms, the later channel appears more important for contagious spread of defaults. JEL Classification: D85, G21, D83
doi:10.1016/j.jedc.2016.03.002 fatcat:zuidhxsuangz3lq6bxijffyiqe