Predicting regime shifts in social systems modelled with agent-based methods

Manfred Füllsack, Simon Plakolb, Georg Jäger
2020 Journal of Computational Social Science  
We investigate the possibility to apply a method of calculus analytics developed for predicting critical transitions in complex systems to social systems modelled with agent-based methods (ABMs). We introduce this method on the example of an equation-based modelled system and subsequently test it-to our knowledge for the first time-on ABMs. Our experiments show that the method may have wide applicability in the analysis of social systems. The method can help to approximate abrupt and thus
more » ... rupt and thus unpredictable regime shifts, even though it may be constrained by stochastics and require a bit more experimentation in selecting suitable variables for making it work in ABMs.
doi:10.1007/s42001-020-00071-y fatcat:fwvjluhunbaefj47asw4wce4m4