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A procedure for operationally predicting the movement of the mesobeta-scale convective elements responsible for the heavy rain in mesoscale convective complexes is presented. The procedure is based on the well-known concepts that the motion of convective systems can be considered the sum of an advective component, given by the mean motion of the cells composing the system, and a propagation component, defined by the rate and location of new cell formation relative to existing cells. Thesedoi:10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0041:ptmomc>2.0.co;2 fatcat:3ywmvho7e5dztbz6zgxcdf2pgu