Dynamics of infectious diseases

Kat Rock, Sam Brand, Jo Moir, Matt J Keeling
2014 Reports on progress in physics (Print)  
Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiologythe SIS and
more » ... SIR type models -before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations; stochasticity; and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems.
doi:10.1088/0034-4885/77/2/026602 pmid:24444713 fatcat:ijwhlezbhjadxeoueiltsjmyau