The future of the global economy in the light of inflationary and deflationary trends and long cycles theory

Leonid Grinin
2018 Figshare  
Recent years and months have evidenced an increase in deflationary phenomena.The present article defines the reasons for the problem, explains the irregularity ofthe inflation–deflation processes in the world and forecasts on this basis that thecrisis-depressive phase of development in the global economy will continue fora relatively long time. Based on an analysis of available resources and the theoryof long cycles, we believe that in the next 5–10 years, the global economy willcontinue being
more » ... willcontinue being in the crisis-depression phase with rather sluggish and weak rises.The article also offers some forecasts for the forthcoming sixth Kondratieff wave(2020–the 2060/70s), identifies its possible technological basis, and discussespossible consequences of the forthcoming technological transformations.
doi:10.6084/m9.figshare.5996309.v1 fatcat:pkhez4jr35f4xklc5mcnmjznqu