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Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic: the case of Italy

Stefano Merler, Giuseppe Jurman, Cesare Furlanello, Caterina Rizzo, Antonino Bella, Marco Massari, Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti
2006 2006 1st Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems  

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In this paper we introduce an individual based model for simulating the spread of an emerging influenza pandemic in Italy and testing the effectiveness of some containing strategies including vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and quar antine measures to increase social distances. Our results show that while the probability of interrupting a large outbreak is negligible, a combination of the control measures can be effective in reducing the incidence of infection. In particular, in the worst
more » ... e, an incidence reduction from about 50% to about 10% can be hopefully achieved.
doi:10.1109/bimnics.2006.361797 fatcat:42m4jnbuzffpdi62sch7v4xwwu
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Stefano Merler, Giuseppe Jurman, Cesare Furlanello, Caterina Rizzo, Antonino Bella, Marco Massari, Marta Luisa Ciofi degli Atti. "Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic: the case of Italy." 2006 1st Bio-Inspired Models of Network, Information and Computing Systems (2006)