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The More the Merrier? A Machine Learning Algorithm for Optimal Pooling of Panel Data
2020
IMF Working Papers
We leverage insights from machine learning to optimize the tradeoff between bias and variance when estimating economic models using pooled datasets. Specifically, we develop a simple algorithm that estimates the similarity of economic structures across countries and selects the optimal pool of countries to maximize out-of-sample prediction accuracy of a model. We apply the new alogrithm by nowcasting output growth with a panel of 102 countries and are able to significantly improve forecast
doi:10.5089/9781513529974.001
fatcat:3wr5qyxcjbbrhowixqac6cg65q